|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
04. October 2004 USDA: Lowest U.S. Ending Stocks Level Since 1977 Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2004 totaled 3.05 million tonnes, USDA reported last week in its latest Stocks Report. Old crop stocks are down 37% from September 1, 2003, the lowest ending stocks level since 1977. USDA also reported that soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 800,000 tonnes, down 49% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks are down 31% from September 1, 2003, to 2.26 million tonnes. Indicated disappearance for June-August 2004 totaled 8.11 million tonnes, down 30% from the same period a year earlier, USDA said. Based on USDA’s analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, 2003 U.S. soybean production could reach 66.7 million tonnes. Planted area for 2003-04 is 29.7 million hectares, while area harvested is 29.3 million hectares, USDA said. The 2003-04 yield is expected to be 2.28 tonnes per hectare. August Crush In Line With Industry Expectations The U.S. Census Bureau said last week that the August crush was 2.8005 million tonnes. This was in-line with pre-report industry expectations that averaged 2.8 million tonnes. Census also said that U.S. soyoil stocks in August were 535,000 tonnes and meal stocks came to 178,000 tonnes. Soybean Exporters Set New Trade Terms With China Soybean exporters have set new financial terms for trading with China. The new terms follow Chinese defaults on payments earlier this year on imports from South America. The requirements — including down payments of up to $2.5 million for the purchase of a 60,000-tonne cargo — already have impacted China’s demand for soybeans. Other terms require Chinese importers to take delivery of their purchases within 30 to 45 days of the transaction. Previously, buyers could buy several months in advance of the arrival date. Exporters also are requiring Chinese importers to open letters of credit within three days of a transaction, instead of weeks previously. Meanwhile, Chinese officials found small traces of carboxin in an Argentine shipment of soybeans earlier last week and news reports indicated contamination had also been discovered in a shipment of Brazilian beans at Tianjin port. However, Brazilian soybeans are not among shipments rejected by Chinese authorities for containing fungicide-tainted seeds, an industry spokesman said. "But after contacting all our members and Chinese authorities, we have not discovered any problems with any of the shipments over to China in recent months. We believe there is no problem," said Fabio Trigeuirinho, secretary of the Brazilian Vegetable Oilseeds Association. China Sets Edible Oil Import Quotas China set import quotas for three edible oils and sugar under a lower tariff rate for 2005 as part of its commitment as a member of the World Trade Organization. The Ministry of Commerce announced the palm oil import quota at 3.168 million tonnes, of which 10% would be for state owned farms. The import quota for soy oil was set at 3.587 million tonnes, of which 10% was for state firms. The rapeseed oil import quota was set at 1.243 million tonnes, of which 10% was for state firms. The ministry also set the import quota for sugar at 1.945 million tonnes, of which 70% was allocated for state owned firms, it said at its website at www.mofcom.gov.cn. Monsanto To Double Royalty Charges For Roundup Ready Soybeans Grown In Brazil Biotech company Monsanto has announced plans to double royalty charges on genetically modified Roundup Ready soybeans grown in Brazil. "Last year the company granted a 50% discount for the coverage of royalties. This discount will not be granted this year," a Monsanto spokesman said last week. This would effectively raise royalty payments to R$1.20 ($0.42) per 60 kg bag of soybeans from R$0.60 last year. Monsanto began charging royalties on Roundup Ready soybeans grown in Brazil for the first time last season. Although the Brazilian government granted an amnesty for farmers to grow GM soybeans in 2003-04, this was grown from seed smuggled in from Argentina. As a result, Monsanto introduced a charge on harvested soybeans rather than on sales of seeds. With planting about to get underway, the Brazilian government is yet to officially announce if farmers will be authorized to plant GM soybeans in the coming 2004-05 season. Brazil’s Soybean Growers May Face Crisis Next Year Brazil’s soybean sector is heading for crisis in 2005 with international prices falling and input prices on the rise, according to Blaior Maggi, governor of the top agricultural state of Mato Grosso. Dow Jones Newswires reports that Maggi is calling for a cut in Brazil’s soybean production next year to counter softening prices. India’s Soy Industry Expects Damaged Crop India’s soybean crop output may touch 7.3 million tonnes in 2004, the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) said last week. The government has pegged the 2003 soybean crop at 7.8 million tons, but estimates from industry associations even lower. "The soybean crop in some areas was partly damaged by erratic (monsoon) rainfall and lack of sufficient moisture at the critical stage of the crop," said SOPA. This year, scanty rains in July and so far in September have partly damaged the crop. Soy Complex Mostly Lower On Stocks Report Data The soy complex closed lower on September 30. The lack any new bullish information from USDA’s Stocks Report allowed the market’s attention to turn back to a large U.S. soybean crop. Farmers may not be all that interested in selling soybeans at cash prices below loan rate this fall. However, it appears that farmers will be forced to market grain regardless of price (but with the benefit of an LDP) because of a tight storage situation. Projected lows for futures below $5.00 may not occur until it is fully realized how big this crop might be and the pressure of forced farmer selling hits the market. November bean futures closed down $2.39, finishing at $193.64; January was $2.20 lower, closing at $196.48 and March lost $3.03 ending at $198.32. October meal was down $2.54, closing at $172.18; December was $2.87 lower, finishing at $176.04 and January decreased $2.54 ending at $177.58. October oil closed $6.39 lower to finish at $452.38; December decreased $1.76, closing at $457.23; and January lost $2.43, ending at $457.67.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
