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THE ASA WEEKLY UPDATE

older issues

February 7, 2005

 

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Senator Harkin Prods USDA On Soybean Rust Plan

Senate Agriculture Committee ranking member Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) has formally requested Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns for a detailed account of USDA’s plans and efforts to combat Asian soybean rust. In a letter to Johanns, Harkin says, “I respectfully request a report detailing what programs USDA has or will have in place to deal with soybean rust by the time the soybean crop is planted this spring, the level of funds being dedicated to soybean rust education, monitoring and other preparations, and the availability of adequate funds to USDA for a full, effective response in case of a soybean rust emergency.”

In his letter, Harkin points out that in past, USDA provided emergency funds to control crop diseases and to assist farmers sustaining losses from crop diseases. For example, he says, in 1996 and 1997, Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) funds were used to compensate farmers whose wheat crops were destroyed because of karnal bunt infections. USDA also is authorized to use CCC funds for actions to help prevent serious financial losses due to crop diseases such as soybean rust. “Because the availability of adequate funds is a crucial component of contingency plans USDA may have for soybean rust, I would like to work with USDA to ensure these funds are available for education and surveillance purposes,” Harkin said.

John Deere Will Use Biodiesel In Its Machines

John Deere announced this week that it plans to use B2, a blend of two percent biodiesel fuel, as the preferred fill in diesel propelled machines made in the United States. “This is a big step forward in confirming our commitment for the use of biodiesel fuel,” says Don Borgman, manager market planning and customer integration, John Deere Ag Marketing Center. “Our manufacturing plants in the U.S. will use B2 biodiesel for fueling tractors, combines, self-propelled sprayers, and other diesel powered machines.”

Biodiesel is a clean burning alternative fuel produced from domestic renewable resources, like soybean oil. B2 fuel is a blend of 2% biodiesel with 98% percent petroleum diesel. “Working with the National Biodiesel Board (NBB) we are promoting the use of B2 fuel because it is readily available and meets the high quality fuel standards that we have set for our engines, and it is a positive step toward adoption of renewable fuels,” says Borgman. “If B2 were used in all diesel engines in the U.S., the United States could displace the equivalent of about 1 billion gallons of foreign oil per year. That could, in turn, translate to some very significant increases in the demand for crops from which biodiesel is made, like soybeans and other natural fats and oils grown right here in the United States.”

Grain Shipments Off To Slow Start In 2005

For the first three weeks of 2005 grain there were 68,113 carloadings among the U.S. Class I carriers, which is 28% less than last year’s volume. Some of the sluggishness is due to weather delays. However, much of decrease is associated with plentiful supplies of grain from last fall’s record harvests of corn and soybeans that led to record grain stocks across many portions of the U.S. and is cutting into domestic movements. One bright spot for rail is export movements to the Pacific Northwest where crop exports to Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have a considerable cost advantage over the Center Gulf.

Soybean-Based Additive May Help Lower Cholesterol In Some Foods

The Associated Press reports that scientists may have found a way to make potato, corn and other chips lower your cholesterol. Researchers at Brandeis University are frying chips in oil spiked with an ingredient from plants called phytosterol, which can soak up cholesterol without harming the taste. Phytosterols, which can be extracted from plants such as soybeans, have long been used as a cholesterol-lowering additive in some margarines, and the American Heart Association and National Cholesterol Education Program recommend their use in food to help reduce cholesterol.

Work On 2007 Farm Bill To Begin

The House Agriculture Committee will begin preliminary work on a new farm bill this year, although the new blueprint for U.S. agriculture policy likely will not be completed until early 2007, according to Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.). Dow Jones Newswires reports that Goodlatte told reporters his committee will begin the process by holding hearings later this year in Washington, D.C., and elsewhere, with the goal of discovering what is wrong with the 2002 farm bill, “as well as looking for innovative new ideas.”

Brazil Moves Forward On Biodiesel Initiative

Brazil is moving forward with a biodiesel program that is expected to create new demand for vegetable oils equivalent to around 2 million tonnes in the next few years. Although the Brazilian government has billed the program as a way to help poor north and northeast family castor bean and palm farms, oil industry analysts say that only the soybean industry could produce the amounts of vegetable oil that would be needed once biodiesel became mandatory in the fuel supply.

“There is a great opportunity to serve a social good in helping poorer communities, but there is also great potential for the soy industry,” said Carlo Lovatelli, president of Brazil’s Vegetable Oils Industry Association. “But it is absolutely crucial that biodiesel be mandatory for this to work,” he added.

Soy Complex Prices Lower Despite Strong Export Sales

The soy complex closed lower on February 3 despite stronger-than-expected soybean export sales. The export pace out of South America is expected to pick up considerably. Argentina has committed a second cargo of beans for delivery to China and nearly all of Brazil’s exports are scheduled to go to the EU-25 with none currently on the books for China. At the same time export competition is ramping up, farmer selling in the United States seems to be increasing as farmers may be moving soybeans that put under government loan last fall before prices drop further, as expected. Record U.S. soybean supplies and a record South American crop contribute to the current bearish outlook. March bean futures closed down $1.19 finishing at $184.45; May was $0.73 lower, closing at $185.28 and July lost $0.92 ending at $166.12. March meal was down $1.65, closing at $166.12; May was $1.21 lower, finishing at $167.00 and July decreased $1.43 to finish at $169.86. March oil closed $1.76 lower to finish at $415.79; May decreased $1.10, closing at $42.66; and July lost $0.22, ending at $424.83.

 

U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance

 

United States

Argentina

Brazil

 

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

 

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

Soybeans

thousand tonnes

Carryin

5,663

4,853

3,059

896

1,630

2,865

681

3,129

4,402

Production

75,010

66,778

85,484

35,500

34,000

39,000

52,000

52,600

64,500

Imports

127

151

136

400

300

350

1,124

402

222

Crush

43,966

41,631

45,178

24,723

24,298

26,842

27,796

28,829

33,809

Exports

28,441

24,089

27,488

8,910

7,215

8,700

19,987

19,750

24,286

Other

3,540

3,003

4,170

1,533

1,552

1,652

2,893

3,150

3,758

Usage

75,947

68,723

76,836

35,166

33,065

37,194

50,676

51,729

61,853

Carryout

4,853

3,059

11,843

1,630

2,865

5,021

3,129

4,402

7,271

Soymeal

thousand tonnes

Carryin

218

200

191

330

347

250

490

763

469

Production

34,666

32,953

35,811

19,486

19,050

21,253

21,950

23,407

27,384

Domestic use

29,380

29,266

30,754

250

260

270

8,750

8,984

9,200

Net Exports

5,304

3,696

5,021

19,219

18,887

20,583

12,927

14,717

17,846

Usage

34,684

32,962

35,775

19,469

19,147

20,853

21,677

23,701

27,046

Carryout

200

191

227

347

250

650

763

469

807

Soybean oil

thousand tonnes

Carryin

1,070

676

488

105

99

74

150

150

93

Production

8,363

7,748

8,509

4,554

4,435

4,947

5,031

5,363

6,275

Domestic use

7,752

7,651

7,847

130

130

145

2,668

2,815

2,865

Net exports

1,005

285

542

4,430

4,330

4,676

2,363

2,605

3,393

Usage

8,757

7,936

8,389

4,560

4,460

4,821

5,031

5,420

6,258

Carryout

676

488

608

99

74

200

150

93

110

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 27 January 2005

 

 

New

Accum.

 

 

New

Accum.

Country

Commodity

Sales

Exports

Country

Commodity

Sales

Exports

Barbados

Soybeans

2

8.1

Japan

Soymeal

1.6

97.9

Canada

Soybeans

10.7

235.1

Mexico

Soymeal

3.2

300.8

China

Soybeans

243.6

8330.3

Nicaragua

Soymeal

3.5

8.8

Colombia

Soybeans

2.3

50.3

Panama

Soymeal

2.7

35.1

Egypt

Soybeans

35

311.6

Philippines

Soymeal

8.4

163

Indonesia

Soybeans

5.9

382.2

Syria

Soymeal

3

71.7

Israel

Soybeans

34

156.2

Vietnam

Soymeal

1

0

Japan

Soybeans

146.6

1425

Canada

Soyoil

0.8

10

Mexico

Soybeans

6.1

1360.6

Hong Kong

Soyoil

3.1

0.4

Netherlands

Soybeans

35.8

161

Korea , Rep.

Soyoil

0.1

0.3

Taiwan

Soybeans

90.1

691.5

 

Mexico

Soyoil

0.2

69.6

Turkey

Soybeans

16

339.2

UAE

Soyoil

0.1

0.5

Belize

Soymeal

0.2

0.8

Export Sales Totals (tmt)

Canada

Soymeal

7.1

352.1

 

Outstanding

Accum.

New

Egypt

Soymeal

10.8

73.6

Commodity

Sales

Exports

Sales

Guatemala

Soymeal

1

90.5

Soybeans

4,951.2

18,188.8

570.0

Indonesia

Soymeal

1.9

74.2

 

Soymeal

1,319.5

2,185.4

94.4

Jamaica

Soymeal

1.6

29.5

Soyoil

126.3

193.0

-5.1

 

 

Thursday Spot and Futures Prices, 03 February 2005

Item

Location

Mar

May

Jul

Soybeans ($/mt)

Central Ill./Chicago

184.45

185.28

187.30

FOB Gulf (Basis)

208.33

209.16

207.51

CIF Gulf Coast (Basis Chicago )

205.76

203.65

205.67

Board Crush Margin

$/mt

13.60

14.30

15.15

 

 

Mar

May

Jul

Soybean Meal 48%, HiPro

Central Ill./Chicago

166.12

167.00

169.86

($/mt)

FOB Gulf (Basis)

196.98

194.56

193.01

West Coast (Basis)

199.19

197.86

197.42

Soybean Meal 44%

Central Ill./Chicago

166.12

167.00

169.86

($/mt)

FOB Gulf (Basis)

185.96

183.53

181.99

West Coast (Basis)

188.16

186.84

186.40

Soybean Oil, Crude

Central Ill./Chicago

415.79

420.64

424.83

($/mt)

FOB Gulf (Basis)

448.86

453.71

457.90

Beans

Meal

Oil

1 year ago prices

Chicago , $/mt

305.80

278.11

678.36

 

Weekly Statistics, Past Five Weeks ($/mt)

30-Dec

06-Jan

13-Jan

20-Jan

27-Jan

Nearby Soybean Futures (CBT)

201.26

199.06

204.81

192.26

189.50

Basis Central Illinois

206.77

211.92

204.48

203.47

202.36

Basis Gulf

225.14

230.29

239.71

192.26

220.74

Nearby Soybean Meal Futures (CBT)

179.23

172.95

184.86

175.16

170.75

Basis Decatur

185.85

175.16

184.75

190.59

186.18

Basis Gulf

196.87

195.00

210.21

210.43

186.18

Basis West Coast

209.00

202.71

225.64

221.45

203.82

Nearby Soybean Oil Futures (CBT)

444.45

442.68

440.04

431.22

428.35

Basis Decatur

470.90

453.71

453.71

442.24

439.38

Basis Gulf

499.56

492.29

489.64

541.45

463.63

BIFFEX Ocean Freight Rates

US Gulf/Cont., grains basis

37.13

37.41

38.57

36.68

37.25

US Gulf/ Japan , grains basis

59.63

60.21

61.03

58.96

60.22

PNW/ Japan , grains basis

37.94

37.04

38.31

34.67

35.32

PNW/ Japan Spread

21.69

23.18

22.71

24.29

24.91

US Corn, CBOT Nearby Futures

80.61

82.18

78.74

77.85

77.06

US Sorghum, Gulf Cash Price

89.73

92.15

89.62

89.73

87.96

Canadian Canola, Nearby Winnipeg

228.60

219.72

222.61

214.11

207.50

Brazil Soybeans, FOB Paranagua

N/A

243.15

237.88

221.65

211.55

Brazil Soymeal, FOB Paranagua

N/A

179.56

183.75

179.56

174.05

Brazil Soyoil, FOB Paranagua

N/A

443.00

440.00

431.00

428.00

Rail Rate-Kansas City MO / Eagle Pass TX 1/

Dec '01

$2,387

Sep '02

$2,287

1/ Quoted rail rates, dollars per car, for a 54-car unit train.

 

 


 

 

 

 


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