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U.S. Soybean Production
U.S. 2005-06 oilseed production is projected at 89.5 million tonnes with oilseed ending stocks for 2005-06 projected to be 7.1 million tonnes, according to USDA. U.S. Soybean production for 2005-06 is now seen as reaching 77.7 million tonnes, based on USDA’s September estimate of yield prospects. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 5.58 million tonnes for 2005-06, USDA said.
Global oilseed production for 2005-06 is projected at 379.3 million tonnes, down 0.7 million tonnes from 2004-05, said USDA. Global oilseed stocks for 2005-06 will likely be decreased from last year as lower beginning stocks and increased crush more than offset larger oilseed production, according to USDA.
Senate Begins To Debate Agriculture Appropriations Bill
The Senate is scheduled to begin debate this week on the agriculture appropriations bill covering fiscal 2006. Fiscal conservatives worry that the legislation (HR 2744) will be amended to load it down with billions in emergency spending, not only for victims of Hurricane Katrina, but also for any farmer or rancher who suffered a weather-related loss this year. “The states affected by Hurricane Katrina are all major beneficiaries of these programs,” Sen. Robert Bennett (R-Utah), chairman of the Agriculture and Rural Development Appropriations Subcommittee.
The House passed its $100.3 billion version of the bill in early June. The Senate Appropriations Committee approved the Senate version on June 23. Discretionary spending in the Senate bill is nearly a half-billion dollars more than in the House bill, with the additional Senate funding gong to research, the Farm Service Agency, rural development, emergency overseas food aid under the Food for Peace program and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
Court Rules Paranagua Port Can Ban Shipments Of GM Soybeans
A Brazilian state court overturned an injunction obliging the port of Paranagua to ship genetically modified soybeans and the port will now reinstate the ban, port spokeswoman said September 16. Parana State Court Judge Tadeu Loyola Costa accepted the port’s argument that it had no way of segregating GMO and non-GMO produce, which is demanded under federal law.
The sale of GMOs has been legal in Brazil for the last two years. In the coming 2005-06 season, around 25% of the crop is expected to be GMO. The two-year ban on GMOs from the port caused many exporters to divert shipments to other ports, stretching operations there and raising costs.
Planted Area In Brazil Decreases 4%
The Brazilian area planted to soybeans in the 2005-06 season has fallen 4% year-on-year to 22 million hectares, according to a report from USDA. Soybean production is expected to be up 18% on last year’s poor harvest and should reach 60 million tonnes, the report said. Yields are expected to be around 2.73t/ha, in line with the 25-year average. USDA attributed the drop in the planted area to current low commodity prices, a strong currency, high rate of unpaid debts, tight credit and high input costs.
Soybean prices are also unlikely to be particularly favorable in 2005-06 as a much larger crop than last year is now expected in the Northern Hemisphere, meaning an ample supply. Soybean rust is also proving to be an issue in Brazil, as farmers have to spend up to $40/ha on spraying their fields with fungicide to treat the disease, USDA said.
Credit from input suppliers is also expected to be either limited or unavailable due to the number of farmers who could not make repayments in the 2004-05 season because of the disastrous crop, according to USDA.
Asian Rust A Concern In Argentina
The pathogen associated with Asian rust has been found recently on a number of farms across Argentina and could spell trouble for the 2005-06 soybean crop. “We’re finding the pathogen in a number places around the country,” said Daniel Ploper, a plant pathologist and director of an experimental research station in Tucuman Province. “There are a lot of volunteer soybeans [beans that grow accidentally between seasons] now, which indicates there was a serious problem with the previous harvest,” Ploper said. “But what is different from in the past is that we are finding Asian rust pathogens now, even before the planting season has started.”
Senasa, Argentina’s animal- and food-health agency, reported last week that Asian rust has already been found in the provinces of Buenos Aires, Chaco, Corrientes, Misiones, Salta and Santa Fe.
India Cuts Base Price For Imported Soyoil and Palm Oils
India’s Finance Ministry on September 16 cut the base price of imported soyoil and palm oils. The government cut the soyoil base price to $506 per tonne from $558/tonne. The base price for crude palm oil was cut to $397/tonne from $423/tonne, while the base price of refined palm oil was cut to $418/tonne from $429/tonne. The base price of crude palm olein was cut to $414/tonne from $432/tonne, while the base price of refined, bleached, deodorized palm olein was cut to $427/tonne from $438/tonne.
Soy Complex Down On Expectations Of Lower Yields And Slow Gulf Exports
The soy complex closed lower on September 15, reflecting talk of better than expected yields and slow export movement at the gulf. Basis levels in the Midwest were steady with slow demand but slow producer selling. However, traders are nervous that the cash selling will increase with the harvest progressing and the slow movement to the gulf will clog the export pipeline. Cheap U.S. prices combined with the strong basis out of Brazil may have kept Brazil from benefiting much from any crossover demand after the Gulf disaster. With the steep downtrend and the U.S. harvest just getting underway, buyers seem to be taking a wait and see attitude. November bean futures closed down $4.32 finishing at $208.98; January was $4.04 lower, closing at $212.28 and March lost $4.23 ending at $215.13. October meal was down $4.19, closing at $190.92; December was $4.19 lower, finishing at $193.89; and January decreased $4.41 to finish at $195.55. October oil closed $0.88 lower to finish at $487.88; December decreased $1.32, closing at $492.73; and January lost $1.98, ending at $496.26.
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance |
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil |
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
|
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes |
Carryin |
4,853 |
3,059 |
7,886 |
1,630 |
2,046 |
4,341 |
3,129 |
2,086 |
1,058 |
Production |
66,778 |
85,484 |
78,653 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
39,000 |
50,500 |
51,000 |
62,000 |
Imports |
151 |
136 |
82 |
540 |
590 |
485 |
350 |
470 |
200 |
Crush |
41,631 |
45,994 |
45,994 |
25,072 |
26,800 |
27,500 |
29,172 |
29,634 |
32,309 |
Exports |
23,946 |
30,209 |
30,890 |
6,500 |
8,700 |
9,400 |
19,571 |
19,542 |
22,936 |
Other |
3,146 |
4,590 |
4,031 |
1,552 |
1,795 |
2,010 |
3,150 |
3,322 |
3,575 |
Usage |
68,723 |
80,793 |
80,915 |
33,124 |
37,295 |
38,910 |
51,893 |
52,498 |
58,820 |
Carryout |
3,059 |
7,886 |
5,706 |
2,046 |
4,341 |
4,916 |
2,086 |
1,058 |
4,438 |
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes |
Carryin |
200 |
191 |
227 |
347 |
354 |
529 |
763 |
469 |
425 |
Production |
32,953 |
36,536 |
36,501 |
19,807 |
21,172 |
21,725 |
22,920 |
23,730 |
25,459 |
Domestic use |
28,590 |
30,118 |
30,527 |
700 |
850 |
950 |
8,784 |
9,400 |
9,900 |
Net Exports |
4,372 |
6,382 |
5,974 |
19,100 |
20,147 |
20,914 |
14,430 |
14,374 |
15,434 |
Usage |
32,962 |
36,500 |
36,501 |
19,800 |
20,997 |
21,864 |
23,214 |
23,774 |
25,334 |
Carryout |
191 |
227 |
227 |
354 |
529 |
390 |
469 |
425 |
550 |
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes |
Carryin |
676 |
488 |
769 |
99 |
74 |
100 |
150 |
93 |
90 |
Production |
7,748 |
8,716 |
8,648 |
4,513 |
4,824 |
4,950 |
5,258 |
5,448 |
5,816 |
Domestic use |
7,651 |
7,847 |
8,006 |
140 |
145 |
155 |
2,710 |
2,785 |
2,920 |
Net exports |
285 |
588 |
585 |
4,398 |
4,653 |
4,820 |
2,605 |
2,666 |
2,896 |
Usage |
7,936 |
8,435 |
8,591 |
4,538 |
4,798 |
4,975 |
5,315 |
5,451 |
5,816 |
Carryout |
488 |
769 |
826 |
74 |
100 |
75 |
93 |
90 |
90 |
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 08 September 2005 |
|
|
New |
Accum. |
|
|
|
New |
Accum. |
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
Canada |
Soybeans |
32.7 |
2.7 |
|
Indonesia |
Soymeal |
3.2 |
87.2 |
China |
Soybeans |
115 |
0 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
1 |
368.4 |
Costa Rica |
Soybeans |
13 |
9 |
|
LW WWI |
Soymeal |
0.2 |
0.6 |
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
26.3 |
84.2 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
46.1 |
1091 |
Japan |
Soybeans |
24.3 |
1.4 |
|
Philippines |
Soymeal |
1.6 |
469.3 |
Korea, Rep. |
Soybeans |
55 |
0 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
2.1 |
29.3 |
Mexico |
Soybeans |
110.3 |
32.5 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
1.8 |
165.4 |
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
66.6 |
0.8 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) |
Turkey |
Soybeans |
40 |
0 |
|
|
Outstanding |
Accum. |
New |
Canada |
Soymeal |
4 |
942.8 |
|
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
Sales |
Colombia |
Soymeal |
4.4 |
205.2 |
|
Soybeans |
4,421.7 |
154.5 |
595.4 |
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
1 |
244.6 |
|
Soymeal |
443.9 |
5,690.1 |
59.9 |
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
2.4 |
12.9 |
|
Soyoil |
35.8 |
410.4 |
4.2 |
Note: New marketing year for soybeans began September 1, 2005 |
Thursday Spot and Futures Prices, 15 September 2005 |
Item |
Location |
Nov |
Jan |
Mar |
Soybeans ($/mt) |
Central Ill./Chicago |
208.98 |
212.28 |
215.13 |
|
FOB Gulf (Basis) |
232.86 |
236.17 |
239.02 |
|
CIF Gulf Coast (Basis Chicago) |
231.76 |
235.07 |
237.91 |
Board Crush Margin |
$/mt |
20.47 |
20.24 |
19.25 |
|
|
Oct |
Dec |
Jan |
Soybean Meal 48%, HiPro |
Central Ill./Chicago |
190.92 |
193.89 |
195.55 |
($/mt) |
FOB Gulf (Basis) |
212.96 |
213.74 |
212.08 |
|
West Coast (Basis) |
226.19 |
229.17 |
230.82 |
Soybean Meal 44% |
Central Ill./Chicago |
190.92 |
193.89 |
195.55 |
($/mt) |
FOB Gulf (Basis) |
201.94 |
202.71 |
201.06 |
|
West Coast (Basis) |
215.17 |
218.15 |
219.80 |
Soybean Oil, Crude |
Central Ill./Chicago |
487.88 |
492.73 |
496.26 |
($/mt) |
FOB Gulf (Basis) |
509.92 |
514.77 |
518.30 |
|
|
Beans |
Meal |
Oil |
1 year ago prices |
Chicago, $/mt |
204.73 |
182.10 |
495.37 |
Weekly Statistics, Past Five Weeks ($/mt) |
|
11-Aug |
18-Aug |
25-Aug |
1-Sep |
8-Sep |
Nearby Soybean Futures (CBT) |
236.35 |
224.04 |
215.68 |
218.90 |
220.64 |
Basis Central Illinois |
244.44 |
233.23 |
225.24 |
228.45 |
251.88 |
Basis Gulf |
249.95 |
236.54 |
228.91 |
232.86 |
240.12 |
Nearby Soybean Meal Futures (CBT) |
225.75 |
210.43 |
202.49 |
203.37 |
203.82 |
Basis Decatur |
226.85 |
209.33 |
199.19 |
203.37 |
204.92 |
Basis Gulf |
238.98 |
223.66 |
220.13 |
203.37 |
220.35 |
Basis West Coast |
259.92 |
244.60 |
237.77 |
236.44 |
235.78 |
Nearby Soybean Oil Futures (CBT) |
500.00 |
496.26 |
486.33 |
503.09 |
494.93 |
Basis Decatur |
511.03 |
507.28 |
497.36 |
514.11 |
486.11 |
Basis Gulf |
527.56 |
523.81 |
513.89 |
530.65 |
516.98 |
BIFFEX Ocean Freight Rates |
|
|
|
|
|
US Gulf/Cont., grains basis |
20.49 |
21.82 |
20.78 |
19.64 |
20.96 |
US Gulf/Japan, grains basis |
36.63 |
38.82 |
37.71 |
36.22 |
38.34 |
PNW/Japan, grains basis |
22.12 |
24.83 |
23.51 |
21.45 |
23.65 |
PNW/Japan Spread |
14.51 |
13.99 |
14.20 |
14.78 |
14.69 |
US Corn, CBOT Nearby Futures |
88.58 |
83.16 |
81.29 |
81.79 |
79.72 |
US Sorghum, Gulf Cash Price |
102.29 |
98.33 |
98.33 |
101.19 |
100.75 |
Canadian Canola, Nearby Winnipeg |
233.68 |
225.77 |
221.15 |
226.15 |
217.58 |
Brazil Soybeans, FOB Paranagua |
248.75 |
238.74 |
232.22 |
242.78 |
239.02 |
Brazil Soymeal, FOB Paranagua |
222.22 |
210.43 |
204.70 |
205.58 |
210.98 |
Brazil Soyoil, FOB Paranagua |
500.00 |
496.00 |
486.00 |
503.00 |
494.00 |
Rail Rate-Kansas City MO/Eagle Pass TX 1/ |
Dec '01 |
|
$2,387 |
Sep '02 |
$2,287 |
1/ Quoted rail rates, dollars per car, for a 54-car unit train. |
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