USDA reported a new Asian soybean rust (ASR) discovery last week in kudzu near Tallahassee, Fla. This marks the fifth ASR discovery in Florida this season, all in kudzu and is the seventh ASR discovery in the United States.

The action farmers need to deal with ASR depends on the stage of crop development, the proximity to ASR discoveries, the projected paths of the disease’s spread, and the amount of inoculum the source areas are considered capable of producing. Currently, essentially none of the soybeans in the immediate area of the ASR discoveries are at the critical stage of mid blooming to early pod development (R-3)—the stage that most agronomists recommend consideration of preventative ASR fungicide treatments. Prior to R-3, agronomists typically do not recommend preventative fungicide application. However, research has shown that soybeans in the vegetative stage that are infected with ASR and are treated with fungicide can have little to no meaningful loss to its yield potential. The region where ASR has been discovered has the least-advanced soybeans.

USDA also reported last week that Tropical Storm Arlene may have distributed ASR spores in Mississippi and Louisiana as well as Tennessee and Kentucky. However, it could be the end of this week before scouts can spot any reddish pustules on the plants from rust spores that may have been spread by the storm system.

Another Delay For WTO GMO Ruling

The EU will have to wait until late October to get the definitive word from the WTO on a complaint filed by the United States, Canada and Argentina contesting what they claim is the EU’s moratorium on approvals of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). The chairman of the panel, Swiss trade diplomat Christian Haberli, told the parties in the dispute that the panel’s ruling, due by the end of June, was now being put off until the end of October. Haberli cited the complexity of the case, the large amount of documentation submitted, as well as the decision to consult with scientific experts on technical issues raised as the reasons for the delay.

The delay means that the final ruling will be issued more than two years after the panel was established on the request of the co-complainants. The three plaintiffs claim the EU has imposed a moratorium on the approval of products containing GMOs since Oct. 1998 without any justification, blocking a number of marketing applications already in the pipeline.

Argentine Production To Reach 38.3 Million Tonnes In 2004-05

Argentine farmers will harvest a record 38.3 million tonnes of 2004-05 soybeans, the Agriculture Secretariat said last week. This estimate would put production up 21.6% from 31.5 million tonnes a year ago, according to the Secretariat. USDA expects 2004-05 Argentine production to be 39 million tonnes. The Buenos Aires Exchange estimates production at 38.85 million tonnes in 2004-05.

Planted area is expected to be 14.4 million hectares, down slightly from 14.5 million hectares last year, according to the Secretariat. USDA forecast planted area at 14.2 million hectares. Area was down a bit this year because soybeans prices were not as appealing as they were a year earlier, the Secretariat said. Area is down in La Pampa, Cordoba, Chaco and Santiago del Estero, but unchanged in Buenos Aires and Santa Fe.

China May Impose Retaliatory Restriction On Brazilian Soybean Shipments

Brazil’s is concerned that China may impose restrictions on their soybean shipments in retaliation against proposed barriers targeting Chinese imports, according to a report published by Dow Jones Newswires. Brazil is considering import tariffs and quotas on Chinese products that it believes are being dumped, including textiles and footwear. “This is especially concerning as we expect shipments to grow in 2006 with China being a major buyer,” Sergio Mendes, president of the Brazilian Cereal Exporters Association told Dow Jones.

It would not be the first time Brazilian soybean exporters have had problems shipping to China. Last year, Chinese authorities banned most soybean shipments from Brazil for around six weeks after a small number of tainted seeds were found in cargoes.

Brazil feels it is in a position of power with regard to soybeans because of China’s insatiable demand. However, according to Anderson Galvao Gomes, soy analyst at the Brazilian company Celeres, “Retaliation may be an option if they have overbooked shipments, though.”

Protein Demand Expected To Skyrocket

World population growth and increasing incomes will boost global demand for protein to two-and-a-half times current levels by 2050, according to Roger Gilbert, Secretary General of the International Feed Industry Federation. Gilbert said growth in world protein demand would pose major challenges and opportunities for the oilseed and grain industries.

From 6.4 billion in 2005, the world’s population would grow to a projected 9.2 billion by 2050, Gilbert forecast. Moreover, global welfare was also forecast to increase, and studies suggested that for every 1% increase in income levels, a 2% increase could be expected in spending on protein sources.

Gilbert said total world feed production at present was around 614 million tonnes, of which roughly two-thirds was produced in just four producer areas, namely the United States (145 million tonnes), the EU (140 million tonnes), China (90 million tonnes) and Brazil (44 million tonnes). Gilbert also noted that there were population centers with large livestock industries, which currently have very small compound feed sectors – India being a notable example.

Soy Complex Lower On Weather Forecast