Record U.S. Soybean Production Expected

U.S. oilseed production for 2004-05 is projected at record 96.9 million tons, USDA said in its latest supply and demand projections. USDA estimates U.S. soybean ending stocks at 12.5 million tonnes. Soybean oil production is expected to surge in 2004-05 to 8.43 million tonnes based on a likely higher extraction rate. Also, increased availability and lower prices could boost soybean oil exports and stocks in 2004-05, USDA said.

Global oilseed production for 2004-05 is projected at 390.5 million tonnes, according to USDA. Increased production of soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts, and rapeseed more than offsets reduced global sunflowerseed production. USDA notes that China’s soybean production is forecast at a record 18 million tonnes, as yields are expected to be very good.

Meanwhile, USDA says the value of U.S. agricultural exports for October rose $1 billion above September, and imports were up about $300 million. For the first 10 months of 2004, the value of agricultural exports is nearly $50 billion, more than $2 billion higher than the same period last year. This leaves a trade surplus of $1.36 billion for the month and $5.3 billion for the first 10 months of 2004.

USDA says: “Large gains in the value of live animals and soybean exports account for most of the increase in monthly export value. The volumes of soybean and cotton exports were substantially higher in October than in September. Soybean export volumes are generally higher in October as U.S. soybeans replace exports from South America. The value of imports of live animals, oilseeds, wine, and rubber each rose 36% over last month.”

Record U.S. Plantings Expected In 2005

Soybean plantings will remain at record levels in 2005, despite the threat from Asian rust fungus and a downturn in prices, leaders of the United Soybean Board (USB) said last week. Greg Anderson, newly elected chairman of the USB, said he believed 2005 soybean plantings “will be very close” to this year’s level (30.4 million hectares).

Like Anderson, other USB officers said there were few signs that in their home states (Kansas, Louisiana and Iowa) of farmers turning away from soybeans. “I don’t think you’ll see a definite shift in U.S. acreage,” said USB vice-president Ike Bordreaux of Louisiana. There may be “some” loss in plantings in the South, where rust fungus has been confirmed, but “it may switch to the North,” he added.

USB secretary Eric Niemman said an “excellent” crop in his home state of Kansas would encourage farmers “to stay with the rotational practices they have.” Meanwhile, USB treasurer David Schmidt of Iowa said that farmers were going to sit back and make an economic analysis.

Brazil To Attempt To Change China’s Soyoil Import Regulations

A Brazilian trade mission will visit China early next year to try and soften rules on soybean imports, Brazil’s agriculture ministry said last week. New Chinese rules require that crude soyoil meets similar quality standards as refined oils. “We are going to bring along technicians to show this is unviable,” said Gilson Cosenza, an agriculture ministry advisor, of the planned January 18-20, 2005, mission.

The mission is also expected to discuss chemical levels allowed in soybean shipments. China rejected cargoes of soybeans earlier this year on grounds they contained beans treated with a fungicide harmful to humans.

India Expects Significantly Lower Soymeal Exports

India’s soymeal exports could drop 37.5% to 2 million tons in the 2004-2005 oil marketing year due to ample supplies and bumper crops globally, the Soybean Processors’ Association, (SOPA) said. The Indian soyoil millers’ lobby group said the international soymeal market is weak due to the bumper crop in the U.S. Additionally, lower demand for soymeal is cutting margins for Indian soyoil mills, resulting in lower crushing volumes.

SOPA has asked federal and provincial governments to reduce the sales tax and some provincial taxes for mills so the mills can better weather the current tough business environment. SOPA said it is also seeking subsidies for soymeal exporters so Indian soymeal can compete effectively in the global market There has been no response yet from the government on the industry’s various demands.

Argentina Discovers Soybean Rust In Spring Soybeans

Argentina’s animal and food inspection agency, Senasa, has confirmed the first appearance of Asian soybean rust this year. Daniel Ploper, a plant pathologist with Senasa in the northeastern province of Tucuman, confirmed the discovery of the disease. “This is different from the previous year because this was found in spring soybeans. It could propagate to other areas if we don’t control it well.”

According to Senasa, the disease was present in ten provinces last year, but did little to hurt the crop as it had already matured. This year’s appearance in the first crop of soybeans is more of a concern. “This does nothing but confirm that this is a problem that is growing, “ Ploper said. He also noted, that while serious, the disease needs the proper climate in order to spread, but if treated promptly with fungicides, can be successfully controlled.

Meanwhile, Asian soy rust has spread to 51 districts in eight Brazilian states, government crop researcher Embrapa said on Thursday. Only 19 of the 51 cases are in commercial crops. The rest are in fields where plants grew from seeds that fell to the ground during the last harvest or fields planted deliberately to detect outbreaks of the disease, said Embrapa’s Ademir Henning. Last year, Brazil’s soybean production was reduced from earlier expectations in large measure to the effects of the disease. According to Embrapa 4.7 million tonnes was lost due to the disease.

Soy Complex Mostly Lower On Strong Exports

The soy complex closed mostly lower on December 16 reflecting strong export sales. Meanwhile, a higher production estimate by Brazil along with Chinese demand concerns because of recent high prices helped limit buying support. Soybean meal futures also were lower at the expense of soybean oil. January bean futures closed down $0.55 finishing at $200.07; March was $1.19 lower, closing at $199.15 and May lost $1.56 ending at $200.25. January meal was down $1.10, closing at $176.70; March was $2.65 lower, finishing at $176.81 and May decreased $3.31 to finish at $178.24. January oil closed $4.63 higher to finish at $451.28; March increased $4.63, closing at $453.49; and May gained $3.75, ending at $454.37.