USDA Plants Test Plots To Monitor Spread Of Asian Rust

Across the southern states and into parts of the Corn Belt, sentinel soybean plots are being planted. USDA plans to have over 700 plots scattered across the soybean-producing areas. There will be two tests conducted in these plots. The first involving sending leaf samples, regardless of disease symptoms, to labs to see if microscopic traces of the disease are present. The second will be by trained observers, inspecting the plants for the earliest visible signs of Asian soybean rust (ASR). So far, scouting is underway in many regions of Florida, southern Louisiana, the Texas Gulf Coast, southwest Georgia, Mississippi’s southern Delta, and eastern Arkansas.

To date, there have been three ASR discoveries—all in central Florida, on kudzu. The first over-wintering of soybean rust was identified near Dade City, Florida, on February 23. Scouting for ASR has continued in Florida through March and April with only two more ASR findings, with both relatively near the first finding. USDA has done continual scouting across the Mid-South and Gulf Coast states with no ASR discoveries made other than the April 11 finding in central Florida (near the other two findings).

USDA is modeling wind movements to predict spore movement. So far, there have been two reports of moderate risk of the disease spreading north. On April 10, northwesterly airflow posed a “moderate risk for susceptible plants in southeast Louisiana, all of Mississippi, western Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.” On April 11, northerly airflow possibly carrying ASR spores caused a “moderate risk for susceptible plants in northeast Florida.” Since April 11, the threat risk from predicted spore movement from the Florida source has posed low threat as wind direction has been east to the Atlantic or southwest into the Gulf of Mexico.

CBOT South American Soybean Contract To Start Trading On May 20

The Chicago Board of Trade announced last week that its South American soybean futures contract would begin trade on May 20. The new soybean futures contract is the CBOT’s first agricultural contract with international physical delivery points, and designed to capitalize on the growth in South American soybean production.

Regular trading hours for the CBOT South American soybean futures contract in the open auction market will be from 9:30 a.m. to 1:15 p.m. Central Time, Monday through Friday. Trading hours on the CBOT’s electronic platform will be from 7:31 p.m. to 6:00 a.m. Central Time, Sunday through Thursday. The CBOT South American soybean futures contract will be physically settled, with delivery points at the ports of Paranagua and Santos, Brazil.

Rio Grande do Sul Judge Suspends GM Soybean Royalty Payments

A judge from Rio Grande do Sul has issued an injunction suspending royalties payments to Monsanto for genetically engineered soybeans harvested in the 2004-05 season, according to Dow Jones Newswires. Monsanto said in a statement that similar suits have been overturned by the Rio Grande do Sul court system. “We believe in our rights and will demonstrate that charging for unauthorized use of RR [Roundup Ready] technology is just and legal,” Monsanto said. Earlier this year, farmers in Rio Grande do Sul agreed to pay royalties at 1% of revenues for the current 2004-05 crop and for the 2005-06 crop.

IBGE Sees 53.3 Million Tonnes Crop From Brazil

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) forecast Brazilian soybean production at 53.3 million tonnes, about in line with Brazil’s Association of Oilseed Processors’ (ABIOVE) March 11 forecast of 53.9 million tonnes and the Ministry of Agriculture’s (CONAB) March 22 forecast of 53.1 million tonnes. USDA estimated the crop to be 54 million tonnes in early April.

China’s Largest Soybean Producing Province To Plant Fewer Beans In 2005

Farmers in northeastern China’s Heilongjiang province are expected to reduce their soybean planting while increasing corn and rice planting in 2005, according to a Chinese government survey. Soybean acreage in China’s largest soybean producing province is expected to decrease 3.1% on year to 2.77 million hectares this year. The report did not provide any explanation for the expected changes.

The total acreage of agricultural crops is expected to inch up 0.2% to 7.73 million hectares this year in Heilongjiang, while grain acreage is expected to be flat with last year’s 6.47 million hectares. These estimates are based on a survey of 1,890 farmers in 25 cities and counties within the province, said the report.

Canadian Soybean Area Unchanged From Last Year; Canola Lower

Statistics Canada, in their March 2005 Planting Intentions Report, reveled a mixed picture for oilseed plantings in Canada this year. Soybean plantings likely will be unchanged from last year’s 1.13 million hectares. The 10 year average soybean area is 1.01 million hectares.

However, Statistics Canada expects a big decline in canola area and a large increase in flaxseed plantings. The projected decline in canola acreage would be equally shared across the Canadian prairie, with anticipated acreage likely to fall from 5.3 million hectares acres in 2004 to only 4.9 million hectares in 2005, according to Statistics Canada. The 10-year average for canola is 4.69 million hectares. In terms of flaxseed, the picture is vastly different. Flaxseed area is expected to climb to 850,000 hectares, 19.2% higher than the 728,000 hectares seeded in 2004.

Soy Complex Higher On Lower Than Expected Canadian Canola Plantings

The soy complex closed higher on April 21 mainly reflecting smaller than expected Canadian canola plantings. The combination of rust concerns and speculative activity in the market probably will keep the unusually large risk premium in futures until the U.S. soybean crop is nearly made. Early estimates are that 2.8 million tonnes will be exported to China this month from the U.S., Brazil and Argentina. This compares with 2.15 million tonnes in March and exceeds last year’s 2.3 million tonnes despite talk that China has delayed some cargoes for future shipment. While shipments to China have been in line with expectations, exports to the EU-25 and the rest of world have been disappointing. May bean futures closed up $2.57 finishing at $234.33; July was $2.30 higher, closing at $237.09 and August gained $2.20 ending at $236.54. May meal was up $2.31, closing at $217.04; July was $1.54 higher, finishing at $216.82 and August increased $1.43 to finish at $216.82. May oil closed $6.39 higher to finish at $505.96; July increased $6.83, closing at $511.03; and August gained $6.39, ending at $509.92.