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THE ASA WEEKLY UPDATE

older issues

September 26 , 2005

 

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Senator Cochran Promises Ag Disaster Relief

Agriculture-related losses as a result of Hurricane Katrina, drought in the Corn Belt or other weather-related impacts will get help in the next disaster bill written by Congress, Senate Appropriations Chairman Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) said September 21.

Senator Cochran said he would work to “craft language and funding that will be approved by the Senate” in the next recovery bill for all U.S. farmers hit by severe weather. Cochran said the Office of Management and Budget is anticipating another emergency supplemental. “[When] it comes we’ll work to include the appropriate provision,” he said.

Meanwhile, Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns last week released a preliminary assessment of U.S. agricultural production losses due to Hurricane Katrina in the mid-south and drought in the eastern Corn Belt. The report estimates hurricane related losses to be nearly $900 million. “Given the severity of the hurricane, the agricultural losses could have been much greater,” Johanns said. “With that said, there is a long road ahead for many of our producers who face infrastructure and long-term losses not accounted for in this assessment. USDA is committed to supporting producers throughout long and short term recovery.”

Hurricane-force winds missed major crop production areas in the mid-south. Substantial portions of soybeans, rice and corn production in hurricane-affected states were harvested prior to landfall of Hurricane Katrina, which also limited production losses. Much of the crop losses are lost horticultural production in Florida and along the Gulf Coast.

This preliminary assessment provides estimates of 2005 production losses and does not include infrastructure or long-term losses. Crop and livestock producers face added losses in the form of damaged or destroyed barns, equipment buildings, fences, machinery, as well as losses associated with degraded farm fields, carcass disposal, electrical power losses and fuel shortages.

The losses from Hurricane Katrina compare to a combined total of $20 billion in farm cash receipts in 2004 for producers in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee. The USDA assessment also reviews production losses due to the drought in the eastern Corn Belt, estimating $1.3 billion in corn and soybeans losses in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin. In addition to hurricane and drought production losses, the report notes that grain and oilseed producers throughout the Midwest have faced reduced prices due to the shipping interruption in New Orleans ports.

Crop insurance will cover a portion of farm production losses attributable to Hurricane Katrina, the drought and other adverse weather conditions this year. While coverage varies by crop and state, in general, 70 to 95 percent of planted acreage is covered by insurance in the hurricane-affected area and 60 to 75 percent of corn and soybean acreage is covered in the drought-affected area.

Ag Coalition Seeks Jones Act Waiver

A coalition of twenty-one farm and commodity groups, including the American Soybean Association, has requested the Bush Administration temporarily waive provisions of the Jones Act for agricultural commodities because of the transportation problems caused by Hurricane Katrina. Under the Jones Act, passengers and cargo moving from one U.S. port to another must be carried on U.S. owned, flagged and manned vessels. A temporary waiver of the Jones Act through 2005 would ease the burden on the overtaxed U.S. transportation system and aid in post-Katrina recovery efforts, the groups said in a letter to President Bush.

The groups point out that there is an insufficient number of U.S. ships to move the anticipated 2006 harvest of soybeans and corn, and that those that are available are vastly more expensive to charter than foreign flag vessels.

Chamber of Commerce Report Critical of China’s Ag Trade Shortcomings

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently released its fourth annual report assessing the progress China has made in living up to the terms to which it agreed as part of its WTO admissions process. The Chamber made a number of recommendations to the Chinese government for corrective action on agricultural issues. These include:

 

  • China’s General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ) should rescind or suspend Decree 73 (the regulation that requires that quarantine import permits [QIPs] be approved prior to signing contracts) or modify it to clarify its implementation procedures to mitigate its negative impact on trade. Further, China should properly notify Decree 73 to the WTO and provide due consideration of the views of its trading partners.
  • China should revise the import permit process and cease requiring shipment-by-shipment quarantine import permits so that trade is not unnecessarily interrupted.
  • China should ensure that sanitary and phytosanitary measures are science based and practical, and should eliminate nontariff barriers.
  • Chinese leadership should enforce the concept of contract sanctity and take appropriate measures against those importers that do not comply with their commitments.
  • China should remove the export subsidies it is still providing on certain agricultural products.
  • China should discontinue its discriminatory use of the value added tax as both an export subsidy and as an import barrier.

Some Brazilian Soybean Farmers Short Of Cash To Finance Planting

In need of cash to finance planting of the coming soybean crop, Brazilian farmers in the frontier regions of Mato Grosso, Goias and Bahia have been selling what they have left of their 2004-05 crop over the last week, traders told Dow Jones Newswires. But the story is different in the more traditional southern growing regions, where farmers are looking to retain stocks amid dropping prices in the hope that markets will improve in the fourth quarter, when supply is at its lowest.

Soy Complex Mostly Higher On Energy Prices, Inflation And Potentially Higher Soyoil Use

The soy complex closed mostly higher on September 22, reflecting the impact of higher energy markets, potentially higher soyoil usage for bio-diesel production and inflationary concerns. Solid export sales and news that China is buying U.S. soybeans from the Pacific Northwest helped support the market. November bean futures closed up $1.10 finishing at $213.30; January was $0.73 higher, closing at $216.33; and March gained $1.01 ending at $219.27. October meal was down $0.55, closing at $189.71; December was $0.66 lower, finishing at $192.90; and January decreased $0.77 to finish at $194.45. October oil closed $8.82 higher to finish at $514.11; December increased $7.72, closing at $519.40; and January gained $7.94, ending at $522.71.

 

 

U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance

 

United States

Argentina

Brazil

 

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

 

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

Soybeans

thousand tonnes

Carryin

4,853

3,059

8,029

1,630

2,046

3,670

3,129

2,086

934

Production

66,778

85,484

77,740

33,000

39,000

39,000

50,500

51,000

60,000

Imports

151

136

108

540

530

485

350

470

200

Crush

41,631

46,267

45,858

25,072

26,800

28,500

29,172

29,000

31,583

Exports

23,946

29,801

30,345

6,500

9,311

9,800

19,571

20,300

23,200

Other

3,146

4,582

4,095

1,552

1,795

2,010

3,150

3,322

3,575

Usage

68,723

80,650

80,298

33,124

37,906

40,310

51,893

52,622

58,358

Carryout

3,059

8,029

5,579

2,046

3,670

2,845

2,086

934

2,776

Soymeal

thousand tonnes

Carryin

200

191

236

347

354

529

763

532

300

Production

32,953

36,863

36,355

19,807

21,172

22,515

22,920

22,852

24,792

Domestic use

28,590

30,300

30,708

700

850

950

8,784

8,950

9,450

Net Exports

4,372

6,518

5,656

19,100

20,147

21,704

14,367

14,134

15,192

Usage

32,962

36,818

36,364

19,800

20,997

22,654

23,151

23,084

24,642

Carryout

191

236

227

354

529

390

532

300

450

Soybean oil

thousand tonnes

Carryin

676

488

781

99

74

100

150

93

120

Production

7,748

8,764

8,607

4,513

4,824

5,130

5,258

5,220

5,685

Domestic use

7,651

7,847

8,006

140

145

155

2,710

2,785

2,920

Net exports

285

624

651

4,398

4,653

5,000

2,605

2,408

2,735

Usage

7,936

8,471

8,657

4,538

4,798

5,155

5,315

5,193

5,655

Carryout

488

781

731

74

100

75

93

120

150

 

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 15 September 2005

 

 

New

Accum.

 

 

New

Accum.

Country

Commodity

Sales

Exports

Country

Commodity

Sales

Exports

Canada

Soybeans

3.5

5.6

Mexico

Soymeal

11

1121.7

China

Soybeans

223

0

Nicaragua

Soymeal

2.2

40.8

Costa Rica

Soybeans

20.9

9

OPAC Is.

Soymeal

0.4

6.2

Egypt

Soybeans

18

0

Panama

Soymeal

7.1

121.4

Indonesia

Soybeans

7

86.6

Salvador

Soymeal

13

112.9

Japan

Soybeans

15.4

46.6

Tunisia

Soymeal

0.4

45.9

Mexico

Soybeans

139.1

108.7

Venezuela

Soymeal

4

143.1

Netherlands

Soybeans

23

0

Hong Kong

Soyoil

0.1

12.1

Taiwan

Soybeans

50.3

31.3

Mexico

Soyoil

0.9

175.5

Trinidad

Soybeans

9

0

Turkey

Soybeans

31

0

Export Sales Totals (tmt)

Canada

Soymeal

18.5

965.2

 

Outstanding

Accum.

New

Denmark

Soymeal

0.5

0

Commodity

Sales

Exports

Sales

Dom. Rep.

Soymeal

0.1

253.1

 

Soybeans

5,016.6

311.6

752.0

Hong Kong

Soymeal

0.1

13.4

Soymeal

400.7

5,774.6

41.3

Japan

Soymeal

0.7

368.4

Soyoil

25.8

421.3

0.9

Note: New marketing year for soybeans began September 1, 2005

 

 

Thursday Spot and Futures Prices, 22 September 2005

Item

Location

Nov

Jan

Mar

Soybeans ($/mt)

Central Ill./Chicago

213.30

216.33

219.27

FOB Gulf (Basis)

231.67

235.43

242.05

CIF Gulf Coast (Basis Chicago)

227.99

234.70

240.58

Board Crush Margin

$/mt

20.08

20.36

19.16

 

 

Oct

Dec

Jan

Soybean Meal 48%, HiPro

Central Ill./Chicago

189.71

192.90

194.45

($/mt)

FOB Gulf (Basis)

211.75

212.74

214.29

West Coast (Basis)

229.39

232.59

234.13

Soybean Meal 44%

Central Ill./Chicago

189.71

192.90

194.45

($/mt)

FOB Gulf (Basis)

200.73

201.72

203.26

West Coast (Basis)

218.37

221.56

223.11

Soybean Oil, Crude

Central Ill./Chicago

514.11

519.40

522.71

($/mt)

FOB Gulf (Basis)

533.95

539.25

542.55

Beans

Meal

Oil

1 year ago prices

Chicago, $/mt

197.59

175.71

475.31

 

Weekly Statistics, Past Five Weeks ($/mt)

18-Aug

25-Aug

1-Sep

8-Sep

15-Sep

Nearby Soybean Futures (CBT)

224.04

215.68

218.90

220.64

208.98

Basis Central Illinois

233.23

225.24

228.45

251.88

203.47

Basis Gulf

236.54

228.91

232.86

240.12

232.86

Nearby Soybean Meal Futures (CBT)

210.43

202.49

203.37

203.82

190.92

Basis Decatur

209.33

199.19

203.37

204.92

186.29

Basis Gulf

223.66

220.13

203.37

220.35

212.96

Basis West Coast

244.60

237.77

236.44

235.78

226.19

Nearby Soybean Oil Futures (CBT)

496.26

486.33

503.09

494.93

487.88

Basis Decatur

507.28

497.36

514.11

486.11

479.06

Basis Gulf

523.81

513.89

530.65

516.98

509.92

BIFFEX Ocean Freight Rates

US Gulf/Cont., grains basis

21.82

20.78

19.64

20.96

23.22

US Gulf/Japan, grains basis

38.82

37.71

36.22

38.34

41.39

PNW/Japan, grains basis

24.83

23.51

21.45

23.65

26.00

PNW/Japan Spread

13.99

14.20

14.78

14.69

15.39

US Corn, CBOT Nearby Futures

83.16

81.29

81.79

79.72

81.29

US Sorghum, Gulf Cash Price

98.33

98.33

101.19

100.75

96.01

Canadian Canola, Nearby Winnipeg

225.77

221.15

226.15

217.58

222.69

Brazil Soybeans, FOB Paranagua

238.74

232.22

242.78

239.02

234.70

Brazil Soymeal, FOB Paranagua

210.43

204.70

205.58

210.98

189.71

Brazil Soyoil, FOB Paranagua

496.00

486.00

503.00

494.00

488.00

Rail Rate-Kansas City MO/Eagle Pass TX 1/

Dec '01

$2,387

Sep '02

$2,287

1/ Quoted rail rates, dollars per car, for a 54-car unit train.

 

 


 

 

 

 


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